We modelled what would happen if winds as strong as those seen in the UK last month were to hit nationwide. Using our physics-enabled digital modelling technology, we ran an analysis of over 16,000km of the UK’s power network to simulate the impact of 100 mph winds hitting the grid en masse.
Our data shows over a third of the network could be at risk of outages during a ‘super storm’.
With extreme weather fast becoming the new norm, our ageing infrastructure across the UK and Europe is under increasing strain. Utilities are working hard to adapt and build resilience across the grid, to reduce the risk of outages and keep people connected.
Meanwhile, industry bodies—including Energy Networks Association, Ofgem, ENTSO-E, and EU DSO Entity—are doubling down on the need for more proactive vulnerability testing to help utilities get ahead of the risk and future-proof their networks. Resilience planning is no longer a nice-to-have, it’s a critical requirement.
The data and insights provided by physics-enabled digital modelling are crucial to helping us understand the full picture. Being able to accurately predict where infrastructure is at risk and how it will behave under different conditions can guide targeted prevention and repair—helping us to understand ‘what if…’ and take action before the next storm hits.
Great to see our analysis covered by Rob Horgan in Utility Week today
Read the full report here.
London, UK— New physics-enabled digital modelling of the UK’s energy grid reveals the scale of network vulnerability to increasingly severe ‘super storms,’ with over 3.5 million people currently at risk of outages, and millions more likely to experience disruption in the coming years. This comes as regulatory focus intensifies on high‑impact, low‑probability weather events, with Ofgem issuing new ED3 guidance for utilities on climate‑resilience stress testing.
Infrastructure experts Neara built a digital model of over 16,000km of the UK’s grid network before simulating a series of extreme weather events to see how critical infrastructure responded. This included modelling the impact of 100mph winds – comparable with Storms Arwen (2021), Eowyn (2025) and, most recently, Goretti (2026) – and more intense 112mph winds. Analysts then extrapolated the resulting data to assess the disruption that would be caused if these so-called ‘super storms’ were to hit on a national scale.
The modelling, which is underpinned by three-dimensional physical simulations, found that up to 34% of the UK’s estimated 296,000km overhead power lines could fail if the country is hit by storms of increasing intensity. The analysis found:
- If nationwide 100mph winds struck the UK, 5.2% of the entire network would currently fail. This could cut off power to an estimated 3.6 million people
- If higher winds speeds of 112mph (equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane) struck across the UK, the country could see a critical incident, with indicative modelling suggesting more than a third (34%) of their energy grids are potentially at risk of failure due to degraded or poorly installed assets. This could cut off power to an estimated 23 million people
As a result of climate change, scientists predict that the UK will see more ‘super storms’ in the coming years, with numbers already ratcheting up. Storm Arwen’s windspeeds of over 100mph left more than 1 million UK customers without power in 2021, while 1.4 million suffered outages during Storm Eunice in 2022. More recently, last year’s Storm Éowyn saw more than a third of households (725,000) in Ireland lose power – an overwhelming event on a neighbouring system that indicates the UK’s vulnerability could be even greater than identified in this study.
Neara’s modelling shows that storms of a similar magnitude striking larger swathes of the UK could cause severe devastation, with grid failures stemming from damage to ageing infrastructure – some built over 40 years ago – causing assets to topple under high winds, while wooden poles in particular may simply snap.
In addition to this damage, the full impact caused by these wind speeds is likely to be far greater. These predictions do not take into account the enormous impact that falling trees and vegetation can have on the grid during a severe storm. Additional analysis from Neara found that 16% of spans—the stretches of power lines between two poles or towers—on the UK’s distribution network are currently at risk of being knocked out by falling trees in extreme weather. This would compound the effect of falling poles—plunging more households into darkness.
Taco Engelaar, Managing Director at Neara, commented:
“A multitude of complex factors means it’s difficult to predict future storm trends with certainty, but most climate scientists believe that both the frequency and the severity of storms will rise. It’s therefore crucial we harden our energy grid. Utilities are already taking vital steps to address vulnerabilities in the network and strengthen infrastructure ahead of future storms, but the scale and speed of the challenge means we can’t rely on traditional approaches alone.
“Regulators are rightly pushing for more rigorous stress testing, but too much of the sector is still relying on spreadsheet‑based vulnerability assessments that can’t capture the real‑world behaviour of assets under extreme conditions. Physics‑based digital modelling technologies can provide the real‑time, granular insights needed to make smarter, faster decisions and reduce the need to build expensive new infrastructure. These solutions can speed up the grid-hardening process and remove some of the financial barriers to boosting network strength. By prioritising resilience and investing in innovative solutions, we can counter the threat posed by extreme weather, mitigate the risk of economic losses, and protect millions of households from blackouts.”
The fallout from an increased number of storms of this magnitude would bring vast economic implications. In 2023, UK insurers estimated the total cost of claims related to Storm Babet to be £560 million. Likewise, Storm Éowyn was the most expensive weather event in history for Irish insurers, with claims exceeding €300 million. Given Éowyn’s impact was felt primarily across Scotland and the island of Ireland, this figure would be far higher if a storm of equal strength struck a wider area of mainland Britain.