UtilityWeek: Super storm’ could wipe out third of overhead lines

We modelled what would happen if winds as strong as those seen in the UK last month were to hit nationwide. Using our physics-enabled digital modelling technology, we ran an analysis of over 16,000km of the UK’s power network to simulate the impact of 100 mph winds hitting the grid en masse.

Our data shows over a third of the network could be at risk of outages during a ‘super storm’.

With extreme weather fast becoming the new norm, our ageing infrastructure across the UK and Europe is under increasing strain. Utilities are working hard to adapt and build resilience across the grid, to reduce the risk of outages and keep people connected.

Meanwhile, industry bodies – including Energy Networks Association, Ofgem, ENTSO-E, and EU DSO Entity – are doubling down on the need for more proactive vulnerability testing to help utilities get ahead of the risk and future-proof their networks. Resilience planning is no longer a nice-to-have, it’s a critical requirement.

The data and insights provided by physics-enabled digital modelling are crucial to helping us understand the full picture. Being able to accurately predict where infrastructure is at risk and how it will behave under different conditions can guide targeted prevention and repair – helping us to understand ‘what if…’ and take action before the next storm hits.

Great to see our analysis covered by Rob Horgan in Utility Week today

Read the full report here.

London, UK – New physics-enabled digital modelling of the UK’s energy grid reveals the scale of network vulnerability to increasingly severe ‘super storms,’ with over 3.5 million people currently at risk of outages, and millions more likely to experience disruption in the coming years. This comes as regulatory focus intensifies on high‑impact, low‑probability weather events, with Ofgem issuing new ED3 guidance for utilities on climate‑resilience stress testing.

Infrastructure experts Neara built a digital model of over 16,000km of the UK’s grid network before simulating a series of extreme weather events to see how critical infrastructure responded. This included modelling the impact of 100mph winds – comparable with Storms Arwen (2021), Eowyn (2025) and, most recently, Goretti (2026) – and more intense 112mph winds. Analysts then extrapolated the resulting data to assess the disruption that would be caused if these so-called ‘super storms’ were to hit on a national scale.

The modelling, which is underpinned by three-dimensional physical simulations, found that up to 34% of the UK’s estimated 296,000km overhead power lines could fail if the country is hit by storms of increasing intensity. The analysis found:

• -If nationwide 100mph winds struck the UK, 5.2% of the entire network would currently fail. This could cut off power to an estimated 3.6 million people 
• -If higher winds speeds of 112mph (equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane) struck across the UK, the country could see a critical incident, with indicative modelling suggesting more than a third (34%) of their energy grids are potentially at risk of failure due to degraded or poorly installed assets. This could cut off power to an estimated 23 million people

As a result of climate change, scientists predict that the UK will see more ‘super storms’ in the coming years, with numbers already ratcheting up. Storm Arwen’s windspeeds of over 100mph left more than  1 million UK customers without power in 2021, while 1.4 million suffered outages during Storm Eunice in 2022. More recently, last year’s Storm Éowyn saw more than a third of households (725,000) in Ireland lose power – an overwhelming event on a neighbouring system that indicates the UK’s vulnerability could be even greater than identified in this study.

Neara’s modelling shows that storms of a similar magnitude striking larger swathes of the UK could cause severe devastation, with grid failures stemming from damage to ageing infrastructure – some built over 40 years ago – causing assets to topple under high winds, while wooden poles in particular may simply snap.

In addition to this damage, the full impact caused by these wind speeds is likely to be far greater. These predictions do not take into account the enormous impact that falling trees and vegetation can have on the grid during a severe storm. Additional analysis from Neara found that 16% of spans – the stretches of power lines between two poles or towers – on the UK’s distribution network are currently at risk of being knocked out by falling trees in extreme weather. This would compound the effect of falling poles – plunging more households into darkness. 

Taco Engelaar, Managing Director at Neara, commented: 

“A multitude of complex factors means it’s difficult to predict future storm trends with certainty, but most climate scientists believe that both the frequency and the severity of storms will rise. It’s therefore crucial we harden our energy grid. Utilities are already taking vital steps to address vulnerabilities in the network and strengthen infrastructure ahead of future storms, but the scale and speed of the challenge means we can’t rely on traditional approaches alone.

“Regulators are rightly pushing for more rigorous stress testing, but too much of the sector is still relying on spreadsheet‑based vulnerability assessments that can’t capture the real‑world behaviour of assets under extreme conditions. Physics‑based digital modelling technologies can provide the real‑time, granular insights needed to make smarter, faster decisions and reduce the need to build expensive new infrastructure. These solutions can speed up the grid-hardening process and remove some of the financial barriers to boosting network strength. By prioritising resilience and investing in innovative solutions, we can counter the threat posed by extreme weather, mitigate the risk of economic losses, and protect millions of households from blackouts.”

The fallout from an increased number of storms of this magnitude would bring vast economic implications. In 2023, UK insurers estimated the total cost of claims related to Storm Babet to be £560 million. Likewise, Storm Éowyn was the most expensive weather event in history for Irish insurers, with claims exceeding €300 million. Given Éowyn’s impact was felt primarily across Scotland and the island of Ireland, this figure would be far higher if a storm of equal strength struck a wider area of mainland Britain.

As the UK braces itself for more severe storms, more power cuts present significant challenges for utilities in meeting public expectations for reconnection. Polling commissioned by Neara found that a third of Britons believe power should be restored within 1-2 hours following extreme weather, while current Ofgem guidelines allow utilities up to 48 hours to restore power. As the threat of “super storms” grows, utilities will face mounting public pressure to act swiftly and meet consumer demand.

ENDS

Notes to Editors

About the analysis:

• -Neara’s AI technology, which utilises proprietary spatial deep-learning, enables the large-scale generation of high-fidelity physics models. 
• -Using data from over 16,000km of the UK’s electricity networks, Neara were able to simulate the potential impact of extreme weather events with windspeeds of 100mph and 112mph respectively
• -The resulting impact data was then extrapolated to assess the damage that may be caused if storms of this magnitude were to strike across the UK as a whole
• -Further analysis found that 16% of the spans – the stretches of power lines between two poles or towers – in this model were at risk of being knocked out by falling trees in extreme weather

About Neara

Neara’s AI-assisted predictive modelling software helps utilities drive critical proactive decisions by conducting precise analyses in hours and days that would otherwise take months or years in the field. Network-wide simulation analyses reveal how assets behave in real-world environments during any scenario — empowering better, faster, more cost-effective decisions. The model supports end-to-end network governance, from routine operational decisions to load-growth planning, emergency scenarios and major grid-hardening investments — without verification from manual surveys. Neara’s technology has modelled >1.5 million square miles of global network territory featuring ~10 million assets, across four continents from California to Ireland and Australia. Neara’s utility customers identify outage risks 9x faster, restore power 3x faster, and save thousands of field visits and millions of pounds per year. 

The company is currently working with a number of partners across the globe, including Centerpoint in the US, Endeavour Energy in Australia, ESB Networks in Ireland, and SPEN and SSEN in the UK.

Neara was recognised in the TIME100 Most Influential Companies list in 2024 for its commitment to grid resilience and reliability.

For more information contact Emma Line at emma@crestcomms.com / 07858 759 400 or visit www.neara.com.